Written by Brian Wojcik | Published by Think Realty of June 1, 2020
Risk is measured using statistics and derived from both quantitative components and qualitative factors. An annual assessment exercise allows most real estate investors to improve business practices, whether doing rehabs, long-term holds, lending, or some combination. It is not difficult with the right tools and understanding and will elevate your business to the next level, resulting in larger gains and smaller losses. Critical thinking and arithmetic are the only things necessary for implementation.
Example of Risk Management Indicators in Real Estate
Imagine two Renters, A & B. Renter A paid rent consistently late, on the fourth day of the month with rarely any variation. Plotted on the curve, the average would show a high frequency of late rent as averaging –four. Renter B is different. The average is one, which would indicate rent is paid on average a day early. Except many of the plots are largely spread out into the negative teens and twenties, with a few plots at 30, 40, and 60. Which has higher variation? Which has more risk? Which can you be more confident of getting paid rent on a given day?
As a separate event, the number of opportunities that a basement will flood may be far less than opportunities for rent to be paid on time, yet, the financial consequence may be quite severe. A sump pump with battery backup is installed, so all should be okay, right? Now evaluate the same two renter households. Consider Renter A vs. Renter B. Would you consider the likelihood of tampering with the sump pump between Renter A and Renter B as the same? Why or why not?
Statistics attempt to bring together all events of different types, each having probabilities and frequencies of their own, and normalize them into a single measure (expected outcome) that you determine is important. Managing the causal factors that impact the outcome is up to you.