Published by REALTOR.com | October 15, 2024
Moving patterns over the past four years could play a role in determining the outcome of the 2024 presidential election, according to a new report
With just weeks to go before the election pitting Donald Trump against Vice President Kamala Harris, the analysis suggests which states are relatively more popular with red or blue home shoppers, based on Realtor.com online home shopping traffic data from January 2021 through September 2024.
The report finds that of the seven key swing states considered competitive in this election cycle, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina have drawn relatively greater interest from red home shoppers. Meanwhile, Wisconsin and Nevada seem more popular with blue home shoppers.
The two remaining swing states, Michigan and Pennsylvania, showed mixed results that didn’t indicate a clear trend one way or the other. If the other swing states end up voting along the partisan lines indicated in the report, this could mean that these two states could determine the outcome of the election.
The report offers a window into how recent migration trends might affect the election, but it is not a prediction of state-level election outcomes, which will hinge on a myriad of factors, including voter preferences on key issues.
“The influence of migration on election outcomes is a compelling topic of discussion, sparking interest in how shifting populations might reshape the political landscape,” says Realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale. “As more people move across state lines, their voting habits could have the potential to sway election outcomes, especially in crucial swing states, where even small changes in the electorate can tip the scales.”
How the study tracked red and blue home shopper interest
To assess how recent migration trends might affect the 2024 presidential election, the study combined Realtor.com online home shopping traffic data from January 2021 through September 2024 with 2020 presidential election county-level results.
Using those election results, the economic research team determined the likelihood of each online home view being associated with a red, blue, or independent voter.
For example, if 60% of voters in the 2020 election favored the Democratic candidate, then the team assumed that 60% of online real estate listing views from that county are from blue shoppers.
The study does not account for factors like income, age, or housing preferences that could affect online home shopping behaviors, and assumes the voting preferences of the typical home shopper are proportional to their current county of residence.
